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Node Reversal Probability Engine

Probability scoring for every node, before the trade

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Node Reversal Probability — Strategy Guide

Why Not All Nodes Are Equal

Every volume node looks identical on a chart, but their reversal probabilities can differ by forty points or more. A fresh King Node in positive gamma is nothing like an exhausted node in negative gamma. The Node Reversal Probability Engine models each one individually and gives you a score you can actually trade against.

What Goes Into the Score

Historical Behavior — How the node has behaved in the past: touch count, bounce rate, and decay curve.

Node Type — King Node, Gatekeeper, Fresh HVN, LVN, or standard level. Type heavily influences the base rate.

Market Context — Current GEX regime, volatility, and distance from spot. The same node behaves differently under different conditions.

Confidence Interval — How tight the probability estimate is. Low sample sizes get wider intervals and lower effective edges.

Interpreting the Score

Score	Classification	Action
75-90	High conviction	Full-size entry, default fade setup
60-74	Solid edge	Normal size, wait for confirmation
45-59	Neutral	Skip or size down
< 45	Avoid	Do not fade. Consider trading the break.

Trading Strategy

Set a minimum probability threshold, usually 60 to 65, and only trade nodes that clear it. This turns vague "this level looks strong" gut feel into a statistical filter with a known edge. Prioritize the highest-scoring nodes for your best capital. Skip everything below the threshold, even if it feels tempting.

Pro Tip

The confidence interval matters as much as the score itself. A 70% score with ±3 is far more tradeable than an 80% score with ±15. Always check both before sizing up.

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