Report Guides
Daily range statistics, percentiles, and target sizing
The Average Daily Range (ADR) is the average distance between the daily high and low over a lookback period. Once the market has used a large portion of its ADR, the probability of further extension drops significantly — it acts as a natural ceiling on the day's movement.
| ADR % Used | New Breakout Probability | Best Strategy |
|---|---|---|
| 0-40% | High — room to run | Breakout/trend following |
| 40-70% | Moderate | Selective entries only |
| 70-90% | Low — exhaustion zone | Mean reversion / fade extremes |
| 90%+ | Very low | Avoid new positions |
Track ADR % consumed in real-time. When the market has used 80%+ of its ADR, avoid new breakout trades — the statistical room for further extension is limited. Instead, look for mean reversion setups at the extremes. When ADR is less than 40% consumed, breakout trades have the most room to run.