Report Guides
Fed announcement day patterns — pre/during/post announcement
FOMC announcements at 2:00 PM ET with press conference at 2:30 PM create a unique three-phase trading day. This report breaks down each phase and the statistical patterns that have emerged over hundreds of FOMC events.
The most reliable FOMC trade is the "2:30 reversal." The initial 2:00 PM spike is frequently faded during or after the press conference. Wait until 2:45-3:00 PM, then trade in the direction that price establishes after the full digestion of the announcement. This move often continues into the next day.
| Decision Type | Initial Spike Direction | Final Direction | Reversal % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rate Hold (expected) | Mixed | Follows prior trend | 45% |
| Rate Cut | Bullish spike | Often gives back gains | 55% |
| Rate Hike | Bearish spike | Often recovers | 60% |
| Surprise (any) | Sharp move | Usually continues | 30% |