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Profitabul™ is a trademark of Profitabul, LLC.

Risk Disclosure: Trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This platform is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice.

Knowledge Base

Report Guides

All Reports
ReportsInitial Balance
All Reports
Initial BalanceOpening Range BreakoutMarket Session CorrelationMarket Session BreakoutPrevious Day RangeWeekly Opening GapSession Range by WeekdaySession BiasSession Volume Profile
Gap FillMidnight Open RetracementOpening Candle ContinuationEngulfing CandlesFair Value GapInside BarsOutside DaysConsecutive Bars
Volume ProfileHigh Volume NodesLow Volume NodesNaked POC StatisticsValue Area StatisticsVolume ImbalancePOC Migration
Delta AnalysisDelta DivergenceHedging Volume ImpactZero Gamma Level
Performance by WeekdayHigh/Low by WeekdayGreen & Red DaysMean Reversion HourPower Hour BreakoutPower Hour ContinuationOptimal Trading Hours
Average True RangeAverage Daily RangeVWAP Std Dev ReturnPivot Points
CPI PerformanceFOMC PerformanceNFP PerformanceMoon Phase
GEX Regime PerformanceGEX Pattern OutcomesAir Pocket BreakoutPlaybook LeaderboardExecution QualityNode Freshness & ExhaustionHeatseeker ScorecardDealer Reflexive Action MapGEX/VEX Reshuffle PredictorIndex Confluence AlignmentOrderflow-Node Conflict DetectorNode Reversal Probability Engine
ReportsMarket StructureInitial Balance

Initial Balance

Opening range analysis for session direction and day type classification

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Initial Balance — Strategy Guide

What Is the Initial Balance?

The Initial Balance (IB) is the price range established during the first 30-60 minutes of Regular Trading Hours (RTH). The IB High (IBH) and IB Low (IBL) become critical reference levels for the rest of the session. The width of the IB is one of the strongest predictors of day type.

Key Concepts

IB Range — The distance between the IB High and IB Low. Narrow IB (below average) suggests a trend day is likely. Wide IB (above average) suggests a balanced/rotational day.
IB Extensions — How far price extends beyond the IB range. Measured in multiples: 1x IB = one full IB range beyond IBH or IBL. Most trend days reach 1.5-2x extensions.
Day Types — Normal Day: stays within IB. Normal Variation: extends 1x. Trend Day: extends 1.5-2x+. Expanded: wide IB with both sides tested.
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Using the IB Report

What the Report Shows

MetricDescriptionHow to Use
IB Width DistributionHistogram of IB ranges over lookbackCompare today's IB to historical average
Extension Rates% of days that extend 1x, 1.5x, 2xSet profit targets based on extension probability
Day Type ClassificationDistribution of day types by IB widthPredict day type from IB width
Directional BiasWhich direction extensions tend to goFilter trade direction after IB forms

Trading Strategy

Narrow IB (below average): Expect a trend day. Wait for the IB breakout, then trade in the breakout direction. Target 1.5x-2x IB extension. Place stop on the opposite side of the IB midpoint.

Wide IB (above average): Expect rotation. Fade moves toward IBH and IBL. Target the opposite IB extreme or the IB midpoint. Use the IB edges as your stop levels.

IB Failure: If price breaks one IB extreme then reverses back through the IB to the opposite side, this is a strong reversal signal. The initial breakout trapped traders.

Pro Tip
The Initial Balance is most powerful when combined with overnight context. If the overnight range was narrow and IB is also narrow, the probability of a trend day increases significantly. Check the market session correlation report for overnight-to-RTH relationships.
Next
Opening Range Breakout
550055205540556055809:309:4510:0010:1510:3010:4511:00IBH 5536IBL 5517IB: 19ptsBreakout!Narrow IB (19pts — 45% of ADR)Trend DayIBH 5538IBL 5500IB: 38ptsWide IB (38pts — 90% of ADR)Rotation Day
Strategy Guide
Initial Balance
When price breaks the IB, extension targets activate at 1x, 1.5x, and 2x the IB range.
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IB Breakout Distribution87 trading days analyzedSingle Break4552%Double Break1720%No Break2528%Close Location vs IBWhere price closed relative to Initial BalanceAbove IB HighInside IBBelow IB Low0%25%50%75%100%38.5%33 days33.7%29 days27.8%25 days
Product Guide
Using the IB Report
Breakout distribution shows how often price breaks one side, both sides, or stays inside the IB.
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